The Ukrainian energy sector enters the 2026 summer season in a state of unprecedented transformation. What used to be considered seasonal fluctuations has turned into a complex equation where the unknowns include not only generation volumes but also security risks, geopolitical crises, and radically new regulatory rules. This year's "summer expectations" for business and the state are shaped by four critical factors: a shortage of base capacity, the rising cost of the fuel component, integration with European auctions, and the need for intelligent energy system management.
Based on previous years' experience, the summer electricity deficit and repeated changes to the Cabinet of Ministers Decree No. 1127 (dated Oct 27, 2023) dictate new conditions. To avoid forced power supply restrictions, businesses must provide themselves with either their own production or imported resources at a level of at least 60% of their own consumption in each settlement hour.
These indicators force Ukrainian enterprises to evaluate not only their electricity consumption but also their own energy resource acquisition portfolios (imports, the Integrated Power System (IPS), their own RES, etc.). Furthermore, when exporting goods to the EU, businesses face the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which directly affects the cost of electricity as a component of production costs. Notably, the CBAM calculation methodology for goods produced in Ukraine and intended for export to the EU requires taking into account the volumes of imported electricity with confirmed origin. In this case, electricity imported from the EU helps reduce the "carbon footprint" of products, as European energy often has a certified "green" origin. This is not just a resource purchase but a way to avoid environmental levies at the EU border.
The cost of imported resources depends on many factors beyond quotes on European trading platforms. Traders and their buyers must consider not only direct operational and currency risks but also the price of cross-border capacity allocation, tax and customs policy nuances, and potential regulatory changes.
Ukraine's transition to joint auctions on the Joint Allocation Office (JAO) platform and the resumption of monthly auctions marked a deepening of integration with ENTSO-E. February 2026 showed steady demand for interstate transmission, especially toward Hungary and Slovakia. Price indicators from JAO auctions in previous months should serve as a basis for calculating the expected cost of summer imports. For instance, between January and April 2026, the cost of capacity allocation at monthly auctions fluctuated between €11–31/MW, allowing for a projected cost of €25–40/MW for the 2026 summer campaign.
Calculations should not be limited to the auction price alone. Additional administrative costs for servicing processes on the foreign partner's side must be considered due to current restrictions on Ukrainian business participation in such auctions (specifically bank regulation legislation).
One of the most serious "black swans" of 2026 was the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since this artery is key for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar (about 20–25% of global LNG exports), global gas prices demonstrated a rapid "afterburner" effect—jumping over 50–70% in just a few weeks.
For Ukraine, which is increasingly forced to use gas for maneuvering generation (due to coal shortages and the destruction of thermal power plants), this translates into direct inflation import into the energy sector.
The rise in gas prices at European hubs to critical levels makes gas-fired generation extremely expensive without Public Service Obligations (PSO). Since these units set the price during deficit evening hours, we expect Day-Ahead Market (DAM) prices to regularly hit new, elevated price caps. Evening hours (from 19:00 to 23:00) are becoming "golden," requiring a radical change in business operating schedules. A gas price increase on the TTF hub to levels above €50/MWh automatically raises the cost of maneuvering generation.
Energoatom's repair campaign remains the most predictable phase with "unknowns" due to limited data on generation capacities. The temporary withdrawal of units requires rapid market adaptation. In this situation, the quality of forecasting consumption and RES generation becomes critically important. Inaccurate forecasts during scheduled outages lead to excessive costs in the balancing market, where prices are traditionally 20–25% higher than the DAM.
Under extreme volatility, where the cost of error is measured in millions of hryvnias, forecasting accuracy becomes a market participant's main asset. For example, the "dropout" of an active consumer under low voltage makes it impossible for the enterprise's equipment to work in the IPS network and switches it to island mode. Thus, even with a pre-confirmed sale of 1 MW of generation to an energy supplier, the situation described above would make actual delivery impossible. The cost of one hour of inaccuracy under current price caps could reach UAH 17,000 plus VAT.
The summer capacity deficit and dependence on weather conditions make it impossible to manage the system in "manual mode." Market dynamics also necessitate automation. As a leading trader-importer, EEC LLC uses its own software solution to optimize portfolio management. This tool aggregates data from various trading platforms, accounts for capacity allocation costs, and enables operational decision-making in real-time.
Thus, the summer price landscape will be determined by market participants' ability to analyze information, mix resource portfolios, and adapt to gas price volatility. High-quality forecasting, modern software, reliable partnerships, and investments in energy storage are becoming the only way to insure against the "golden" hours of maneuvering generation.
EnergoBusiness Profile
Oksana Sus, Director of Strategic Planning and Project Implementation at EEC LLC.
Born: August 17, 1982.
Education: Graduated from the Kyiv Institute of Banking in 2003; worked in the Fuel and Energy Complex Department of Prominvestbank.
Post-grad: Graduated from Vadym Hetman KNEU in 2004 with a Master's degree in Banking.
Experience: Dedicated about 17 years to working in authorized banks serving energy sector enterprises; has been working directly in the energy industry since 2023.
Current Position: Director of Strategic Planning and Project Implementation at EEC LLC.
