Here is a detailed market overview of the gas sector in Ukraine and Europe for the week of June 29 to July 3, 2026.
Europe Trapped: The Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck and Empty Storage
The European market has once again begun pricing in a risk premium. The primary driver of this market anxiety remains the Middle East, where traders are closely monitoring the progress—or lack thereof—of peace talks between the US and Iran.
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has shown minor improvements but remains significantly below pre-war levels. Furthermore, following strikes last weekend, LNG transit through this vital artery dropped close to zero. Compounding the issue, QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on supplies to Italy's Edison until September 2026. This has forced European importers to urgently shift their portfolios toward US LNG exporters near the Gulf of Mexico.
Against this backdrop, the front-month (M+1) gas contract ticked upward, nearing June peaks, with Winter '26 and Summer '27 contracts following a similar trajectory.
Critical Factor: As of July 2, European storage facilities were filled to just 49.2%, compared to the historical five-year average of approximately 62%.
Replenishing this deficit during the remainder of the injection season faces steep hurdles, including:
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Unplanned power outages in Norway;
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Severe heatwaves in Asia driving up regional LNG demand;
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Hydroelectric power constraints in the Nordic countries.
A direct hit also came from extreme summer weather within Europe itself. Temperatures soaring above 40°C, combined with weak wind speeds and generation curbs at French nuclear power plants, forced a heavy reliance on flexible gas-fired power plants. Consequently, gas is currently being consumed to power air conditioning instead of being injected into winter storage.
Meanwhile, investment funds slightly reined in their activity, reducing their net long positions on the Dutch TTF hub to 153 TWh.
Ukrainian Market: Stability and Doubled Imports
The Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEB) saw increased activity last week, with 13.1 million cubic meters of gas realized—a 17.2% increase compared to the previous week. Prices across various UEB market segments remained generally stable, despite a few isolated, multidirectional fluctuations.
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Medium- and Long-Term Market: Trading continued for July, August, and November 2026 resources. Buying and selling positions were formed by 8 companies, including Ukrnafta, Gas Supply Company Naftogaz Trading, Concern MTM, the Gas TSO of Ukraine, and Ukrzaliznytsia. A total of 11.53 million cubic meters of July resource was sold within the gas transmission and underground storage systems.
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Short-Term Market: Participants actively placed orders on the intraday and day-ahead markets, concluding 86 deals for a total volume of 1.622 million cubic meters.
Imports and Storage Status
Starting July 1, natural gas imports from Europe doubled, hovering between 0.8 and 1.6 million cubic meters per day. Notably, all incoming volumes were imported exclusively from Poland. There were no gas exports out of the customs warehouse.
Ukraine continues to build up its winter reserves. Underground storage facilities (UGS) currently hold 12.04 billion cubic meters of natural gas, marking a weekly increase of 2.19%. Off-take from storage was virtually non-existent, while daily injections held steady at approximately 38 million cubic meters.
