Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEB): Weekly Results
The domestic market showed a sharp upward trend. Prices confidently crossed the 22,000 UAH mark (approx. $501) per thousand cubic meters (excluding VAT), reacting to instability in EU markets.
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Trading Volumes: 18.8 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold during the week (2 million cubic meters more than the previous week).
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Medium and Long-term Market: * 8.6 million cubic meters of March and April resource were sold.
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Price range: 20,069.44 – 22,826.13 UAH/tcm (approx. $457 – $520) excluding VAT.
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Ukrnafta and VK Ukrnaftoburinnia were the successful selling companies.
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Differential Trading: Ukrnafta sold 8 million cubic meters in the differential trading section with a premium of 4.6–8.82 EUR to the TTF price.
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Short-term Market: Demand doubled (+106.72%), with 43 transactions concluded for a total volume of 2.25 million cubic meters.
European Market: Energy Security at Risk
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has become a stress test for Europe's dependence on LNG. The world's most important maritime route—the Strait of Hormuz—is effectively closed to most commercial shipping (traffic decreased by approximately 90%), severely narrowing the supply corridor.
Key Impact Factors:
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The Qatar Factor: QatarEnergy declared force majeure and suspended production at key facilities following a drone attack on the Ras Laffan export hub. It is estimated that returning to operations after a full LNG plant shutdown takes about 2 weeks.
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Logistics Chaos: Shipping data shows many tankers have anchored or rerouted. Goldman Sachs expects that while flows through Hormuz could resume in 5 days, it may take 4 weeks for full normalization.
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Storage Levels: EU gas inventories remain historically low for this time of year at 29.59%.
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Price Swings: After peak values on Tuesday, a broad "payback" occurred on Wednesday. Prices on European hubs like TTF fluctuated within the $480–$550 range per thousand cubic meters.
Resource Balance and Imports to Ukraine
Despite the difficult external environment, natural gas imports from Europe increased:
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Average Daily Import: approximately 27 million cubic meters (+7.14%). The majority came from the Polish direction.
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Exports (Customs Warehouse): up to 0.7 million cubic meters per day toward Moldova and Poland.
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Ukrainian Storage: 9.45 billion cubic meters of natural gas remain in storage (withdrawal rate is approximately 11 million cubic meters per day).
Outlook: The market will remain in a state of high tension until there is clarity regarding the timing of restored shipping security in the Persian Gulf. Temperature forecasts adjusted toward colder weather at the end of the 15-day period may provide additional support for demand and prices.
