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Futurological forecast of the Ukrainian gas market for 2027.

Futurological forecast of the Ukrainian gas market for 2027.

23.02.2025 16:03

Now many people, including experts, are making different assessments and statements regarding different aspects of our present and the nearest prospects. So I wanted to add something of my own in this area. But, in order to avoid devastating criticism, I will focus on what I know at least a little - the gas industry.

So.

1. 2027 - a peace agreement (truce) between Ukraine and the Russian Federation has already been signed (possibly earlier). In accordance with the agreement on minerals signed between Ukraine and the USA, American companies "enter" the territory of Ukraine for the exploration of minerals and their extraction.

2. 25-28 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year are transported through the Ukrainian GTS to Europe through one transit gas pipeline allocated from the general system. Part of the transport tariff on the territory of Ukraine is directed to the restoration of the country (here without temporarily occupied territories). Perhaps this gas pipeline is managed by an international consortium.

3. A new gas pipeline-interconnector between Poland and Ukraine with a capacity of at least 15 billion cubic meters per year in the direction of Ukraine has been built (the LNG terminal in Świnoujście and the Polish section of the GTS in the direction of Ukraine have also been expanded). The chain created on the territory of Ukraine, consisting of a new interconnector and one or two underground gas storage facilities, is managed by an American company, which is also engaged in ensuring the supply of American (usually) liquefied natural gas to these underground gas storage facilities and further to Europe.

4. A free (special) economic zone operates in the Uzhhorod area, where branches of a number of foreign exchanges operate, for example, the New York Stock Exchange NYMEX, as well as the UEB. That is, based on the work of these exchanges, UGS and an extensive system of gas pipelines, an Eastern European trading hub is being formed. In addition, the liquid work of these exchanges allows for the formation of a national price indicator that determines domestic prices for natural gas, including for the population.

5. In Ukraine, a Gas Release Program has been developed and is being implemented, i.e. a program for forced competition in the market.

6. In Ukraine, the level of natural gas production has been restored to 21-22 billion cubic meters per year.

7. The level of biomethane production reaches 300 million cubic meters per year (not my figure). To a large extent, biomethane is used in export production to reduce CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) payments. For the transportation of biomethane within Ukraine, regional gas distribution networks are being unified (where necessary). Biomethane transportation by road in compressed or liquefied form is also widely used.

Do you mean "fantasy"? Maybe, but I want to dream.