Today, Ukraine’s gas market differs significantly from where it stood a few years ago. Commercial consumption is nearly half of pre-full-scale war levels. At the same time, private production already covers this segment's demand, occasionally even exceeding it. Gas storage facilities currently hold around 12.85 billion cubic meters—substantially higher than last year.
Meanwhile, the gas production sector continues to operate under systematic Russian strikes. Restoring damaged facilities and drilling new wells require significant financial resources.
The logic here is straightforward: if a portion of surplus gas can be exported, companies will gain additional funding for:
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Repairing damaged infrastructure;
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Drilling new wells;
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Maintaining current production levels.
What the Government's Draft Resolution Proposes
This is certainly not about unrestricted exports. A draft resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers is currently under consideration, introducing a controlled export mechanism.
Key parameters of the proposed model include:
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Volume Limits: The monthly quota will not exceed 15% of the previous month's actual production.
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Transparent Sales: Gas will be sold exclusively through specialized exchange auctions.
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Licensing: Only approved companies will be permitted to export after obtaining the appropriate license.
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Strict Timelines: Unused volumes will not roll over to the following month.
Crucially, the state retains the right to swiftly suspend exports should any threats to energy security arise.
Therefore, the main focus today should not be on the fact of potential exports itself, but rather on the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism. If it simultaneously safeguards the domestic market and provides Ukrainian gas producers with the resources needed to rebuild after Russian attacks, such a model merits serious professional discussion.
