The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which led to strikes on Qatari infrastructure and the loss of a portion of its LNG capacity for the coming years, triggered a sharp spike in gas prices.
Domestic Market: Ukraine
In the "Medium and Long-term Market" section of the UEB, trading for March and April 2026 resources continued. A total of 9 companies formed buy or sell positions, including Ukrnafta, VK Ukrnaftoburinnia, JV BNK, Gas TSO of Ukraine, Tepla, and others. Throughout the week, market participants took a wait-and-see approach due to rising prices. 100 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold in this section for April delivery. The position of Energycenter was successful, with the realization price reaching 23,545 UAH/tcm excluding VAT. Consequently, a sharp upward trend in exchange quotations was recorded last week.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEB, participants submitted bids on the within-day market, in the GTS, and in UGS. A total of 42 transactions were concluded with a total volume of 2,227 thousand cubic meters.
European Market: Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Disruptions
European energy markets began the week with steady growth, as wholesale gas prices rose by approximately 3-5% amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. US strikes targeting Iranian military facilities around Kharg Island, one of the country's most vital oil export hubs, raised fears of further disruptions to global energy supply routes.
Gas prices surged sharply on Thursday, March 19, following Iranian strikes on the Qatari Ras Laffan facility. In response, Trump warned Iran against further attacks on Qatari LNG plants, threatening to "massively blow up the entire South Pars gas field" if they continue. The CEO of QatarEnergy has since confirmed that 17% of capacity will be offline for the next 3–5 years (12.8 million tons of LNG per year), shifting sentiment on the outlook and adding clear upward pressure across the entire curve.
Markets reacted violently to these developments. European gas prices jumped as much as 35% following the news, and the forward curve was adjusted higher across the board. The British M+1 contract closed 12.33% higher than the previous close. The reaction further down the curve was notable: Summer 28 and Winter 28 rose by 15% and 10%, respectively.
This situation is not just about immediate shortages; it represents a long-term supply gap from the world's largest LNG exporter. Earlier this month, Qatar suspended exports following initial attacks and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At one point, nearly 20% of global LNG supplies were interrupted.
Outlook and Fundamentals
Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee, noted that the strikes on Ras Laffan could lead to a prolonged global gas shortage, though this situation will not put pressure on the Trump administration, which benefits economically from high global gas prices.
The damage is now physical rather than just logistical, significantly complicating the return to normalcy. Europe, having already depleted its storage after the winter, will have to intensify competition for spot cargoes with Asia to replenish stocks, which stood at 28.7% as of March 19, ahead of the next winter.
Regarding fundamentals, temperatures are approaching seasonal norms. At the same time, wind power generation is expected to increase in early April, which should limit the demand for gas as a source of electricity.
Natural gas imports from Europe arrived at an average rate of about 24.9 million cubic meters per day (-1.11%). Inbound flows decreased against the backdrop of rising quotations in Europe. Imports were present from all neighboring European countries, primarily from Poland and Hungary. Exports from the customs warehouse were present only toward Moldova, totaling 0.1 million cubic meters on March 18. Ukrainian storage facilities held 9.48 (+0.42%) billion cubic meters of natural gas. Withdrawal from UGS was practically absent; instead, small injection volumes of about 13 million cubic meters per day were observed.
